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有多少人会买特斯拉□的Model 3?请看最专业的分析

来源:网络整理 作者:久热 人气: 发布时间:2017-08-16
摘要:伴随着轰轰烈烈的宣传和必将成为主流的看好声,特斯拉最近高调推出了其最新款的Model 3轿车。这款新车的续航里程为350多公里,3.5万美元的起售价也是较为实惠的,基本与凯利蓝皮书(Kelley Blue Book)给出的目前市场上34,721美元的新车销售均价保持一致。

Another barrier is the $7,500 federal tax credit currently available for buyers of the first 200,000 units a manufacturer sells in the U.S., which started in 2009. Sales of the Model S and Model X, with a few Roadsters thrown in, mopped up more than half of Tesla’s 200,000 unit allotment. By some estimates, Tesla shoppers will no longer be eligible for the tax credit starting in mid to late 2018, just when it needs some financial risk mitigation to move through the innovation curve. While some states are offering incentives, a new trend is for those states to not only apply a salary cap to eligibility for a tax credit, but impose fees on electric vehicle owners to make up for not paying taxes on fuel. This could further stifle adoption, even in the face of decreasing battery costs and increasing availability of charging stations.

另一个壁垒则是特斯拉的抵税配额快用完了。美国从2009年开始,给予了汽车厂商生产的前20万辆汽车每辆7,500美元的税收抵免政策。如果考虑到Model S和Model X的销量,再加上少量的Roadster,特斯拉的配额差不多已经用了一半多了。据估算,到2018年末,消费者在购买特斯拉时就将无法享受到税收优惠,而这时正是特斯拉需要冲销量、在创新曲线上再拱一拱的时候。虽然美国有些州针对电动汽车颁布了一些利好政策,然而同时这些州也留了一些后手,有的要求收入达到一定水平者不得享受税收优惠,还有的对电动汽车车主征收了更高的手续费,相当于变相征收了燃油税。这些都有可能对电动汽车的采用率造成影响,哪怕电动汽车的电池成本越来越低、路上的充电站越来越多了。

The rest of the automotive world is not standing still either. In response to increasingly discordant regulations calling for the complete ban of internal combustion engine vehicles by India, U.K., France, and China by a seemingly arbitrary 2030 or 2040 deadline, nearly every luxury and non-luxury brand will have an electric vehicle in its stable by 2020, whether consumers want them or not. Most if not all will have a 300-plus mile range, along with a well-established dealer body for sales and services. GM and Nissan will probably lose their tax credit sometime around 2018, but many other companies will be able to sweeten the pot with state and federal credits, providing additional competition to Tesla just as the current backlog is fulfilled.

Tesla faces other challenges to reaching the early majority in addition to the general disinterest in purchasing electric vehicles. One of those is the Model 3’s size and body style, which falls into the compact luxury sedan category, similar to the BMW 3-Series or Audi A4. The Model 3 is a four-door sedan, not even a hatch, in a world where SUV sales are booming as consumers demand more utility from their rides. While the Model 3 does have a front and rear trunk, it doesn’t have anywhere near the cargo capacity of a compact SUV so popular in today’s market.

Rebecca Lindland is an executive analyst at Kelley Blue Book.

Next on the curve are early adopters (13.5%), who are a bit choosier about the technology they adopt, and are seen as the go-to resource for intel on new tech, providing reassurances about its viability. They are more price sensitive, but still risk tolerant. In today’s world, early adopters are also known as influencers; I would argue these are current Model S owners and Model 3 deposit holders and soon-to-be buyers.

除了大家对购买电动汽车普遍兴致不高,特斯拉要想吸引“早期多数使用者”的关注,还面临着其他一些挑战。首先是Model 3的尺寸和体型,Model 3大致可以归入紧凑豪华车市场,大概就是宝马3系和奥迪A4这一级别。Model 3是一款四门家轿,并不是一款掀背车。然而随着消费者对功能性的要求越来越高,目前销量最火的却是SUV。Model 3虽然也有前后储物厢,但它的载货能力和目前市场上最火的紧凑型SUV相比,显然还是差了一大截。

下一组是“早期多数使用者”,约占总人口的34%。这部分人需要被说服才会采用新技术。不过只要他们发现新技术能够造福他们的生活,他们还是乐于采用的。这些人也是伊隆·马斯克和特斯拉最需要的客户群。

考虑到在美国的购车群体中,每年购买电动汽车者只有1%左右,可以说电动汽车技术本身仍然可以归为“创新产品”一类。混动汽车投放市场已有20年之久,可是据汽车网站MotorIntelligence报道,2016年,混动汽车占新车销售的份额仍然只有少得可怜的2.2%,较2013年的3.3%还有所下降。另据IHS Markit报道,目前混动和电动汽车的销量加起来,只占了全球新车销量的3%左右。混动汽车花了20年时间,才勉强越过了“创新者”那2.5%。每个月有超过1600万名消费者到凯利蓝皮书上搜索新车信息,然而其中只有3%的人研究过豪华电动汽车,考虑过混动车的人更是只有2%。

 

With much fanfare and talk of going mainstream, Tesla recently unveiled its latest baby, the Model 3, with a base range of 220 miles and an accessible starting price of $35,000. The Model 3 sedan’s price is right in line with today’s average transaction price of $34,721 for a new car, according to my employer, Kelley Blue Book. But calling the Model 3 mainstream is a bit of a misnomer, given that the vehicle is, regardless of price, electric. In fact, the only thing mainstream about the Model 3 is the price.

责任编辑:久热
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